By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In advance of the third anniversary of the Ukraine invasion, the Kremlin has reportedly directed its propagandists to promote a narrative of Russian victory over NATO. These narratives aim to discredit Ukraine and its Western allies, portraying them as obstacles to peace while simultaneously claiming Russian success on the battlefield and in negotiations. Multiple false narratives, including the alleged betrayal of Ukraine by the West and the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government, are being amplified. This intensified propaganda campaign utilizes AI to increase its reach and impact, further highlighting Russia’s efforts to reshape the conflict’s narrative.
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Russia’s desire to declare victory in its war against Ukraine, and even against NATO, is a complex issue driven by a confluence of factors. It’s not simply a matter of claiming a battlefield triumph; the declaration itself serves multiple strategic purposes, both domestically and internationally.
The primary motivation seems rooted in Vladimir Putin’s personal survival. Facing mounting internal pressure, a declaration of victory offers a potent tool to deflect criticism and maintain his grip on power. The immense human and material costs of the war, coupled with its prolonged duration, present a significant threat to his authority. A declared victory, however tenuous, allows him to portray the conflict as a success, thus mitigating the potential for backlash from disgruntled oligarchs, the military, or the general populace. The alternative – admitting defeat – carries far greater risks, potentially leading to a challenge to his rule.
Furthermore, a declaration of victory would allow Russia to reshape the narrative surrounding the war. By declaring success, Russia could attempt to rewrite history, portraying the invasion as a necessary and ultimately victorious undertaking. This narrative is crucial in managing the domestic perception of the conflict and attempting to garner public support, even in the face of significant setbacks on the battlefield. The framing of the war as a successful special operation, rather than a full-scale invasion, is already evidence of this strategy.
This desire for a victory declaration extends beyond domestic consumption. Internationally, it could be used as leverage to negotiate an end to sanctions and restore Russia’s image on the world stage. A declared victory could be used as a bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations, potentially convincing other nations that the conflict has ended and sanctions should be lifted. This would be especially potent if coupled with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, even if partial.
The perceived weakness of the United States’ current administration further emboldens Russia’s ambitions. The assertion that Russia has successfully installed a puppet president in the US, though highly contentious, highlights a perceived vulnerability that Russia aims to exploit. This perceived success in influencing US politics strengthens the narrative of a broader Russian victory, even if it doesn’t fully encompass military achievements in Ukraine. The notion of a Russian victory over the US is inherently provocative, emphasizing the extent to which Russia believes it has achieved its long-term strategic objectives.
The extent of Russia’s success in Ukraine is, of course, highly debatable. The war has witnessed significant casualties and territorial losses for Russia, contradicting any straightforward claim of victory. However, Russia’s propaganda machine has skillfully manipulated narratives, creating an alternate reality where certain gains are greatly magnified and setbacks are downplayed. The declaration of victory, therefore, isn’t about objective reality but about manipulating perceptions and consolidating power.
This manipulative strategy isn’t new. Russia has consistently downplayed its losses and inflated its successes throughout the conflict. The persistent assertion that the conflict is a war against NATO and the US, not just Ukraine, is another example of this propaganda war. This narrative aims to frame the conflict as a larger geopolitical struggle, rather than a purely territorial dispute, thereby justifying the conflict and potentially garnering support from sympathetic actors. Ultimately, declaring victory, even if based on a deeply distorted version of reality, allows Putin to spin the narrative, solidify domestic support, and gain negotiating leverage on the international stage. Despite the clear evidence to the contrary, the act of declaration itself becomes a significant political maneuver.