By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On the third anniversary of its full-scale invasion, Russia plans to falsely declare victory in its war against Ukraine and NATO, according to Ukrainian intelligence. This narrative aims to demoralize Ukrainians, discredit the government, and sow discord among its allies by pushing the false claim of Western betrayal. The Kremlin intends to leverage recent U.S.-Russia talks to frame pro-Kyiv governments as obstacles to peace, while simultaneously utilizing disinformation campaigns to destabilize Ukraine internally. These actions are supported by the Security Service of Ukraine, which highlights Russia’s increased psychological operations using bots and fake social media accounts to sow division.
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Russia wants to declare ‘victory’ over Ukraine on February 24th, according to Ukrainian intelligence, a move that feels less like a genuine military accomplishment and more like a theatrical performance designed to reshape the narrative of the conflict. The timing itself is curious, suggesting an attempt to capitalize on a specific date for maximum propaganda impact.
This self-proclaimed victory wouldn’t represent any significant shift in the battlefield reality. The war, already dragging on for three years, shows no signs of imminent conclusion, with ongoing conflict and no major territorial shifts indicating a decisive Russian win. It’s akin to declaring bankruptcy – a formal announcement that doesn’t magically erase the underlying financial problems.
The declaration seems intended to bolster flagging morale within Russia and sow discord among Ukraine’s allies. By painting a picture of success, however hollow, Russia hopes to weaken the resolve of both Ukrainians and their supporters in the West. The supposed “victory” is so flimsy that it’s almost a form of psychological warfare; a blatant attempt to manufacture a narrative that ignores the brutal reality on the ground.
This planned declaration carries a whiff of desperation. After significant losses of manpower and equipment, along with an increasingly strained economy, a premature declaration of victory is a desperate attempt to secure a symbolic win, even if it lacks substance. The claim is likely to be met with widespread skepticism, given the ongoing conflict and lack of tangible Russian gains.
The significance of February 24th, the anniversary of the invasion’s start, makes the timing highly calculated. It’s a blatant attempt to associate this fabricated victory with the anniversary, trying to rewrite history and present a rosy picture of the war’s progress. A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive around that date would be particularly embarrassing for Russia, undermining their planned narrative.
Furthermore, the desired declaration seems connected to broader geopolitical strategies. There’s a sense that Russia is trying to manipulate international opinion, particularly in the US and Germany, where upcoming elections could influence the outcome. The implications extend far beyond the borders of Ukraine; Russia’s attempt to claim victory is clearly part of a larger campaign to shape global perceptions and possibly influence future policies.
The idea of Russia declaring victory and then immediately withdrawing troops is interesting, though highly unlikely. Such a move would almost certainly be interpreted as a defeat by many, despite the attempt to spin it as a victory. However, it does offer a potential escape route for Russia from the quagmire, however unpalatable the admission of failure would be.
One intriguing aspect is the potential role of political figures beyond Russia, specifically the influence of former US President Trump. The timing suggests an attempted coordination, exploiting existing political divisions in Western countries to further their narrative. This highlights the international dimension of the conflict, where domestic politics in several countries could be manipulated to serve Russia’s strategic goals.
Ultimately, the reported plan highlights the importance of Ukrainian resilience. The continued fight, even in the face of Russia’s manufactured victory claim, is crucial. Any potential Russian withdrawal would not bring peace but merely represent the beginning of a new, uncertain phase in the conflict, dependent on the willingness of both sides to engage in further negotiations. The international community’s response to Russia’s attempted narrative manipulation will also play a key role in shaping future developments.