By John Q. Hosedrinker 
This updated assessment forecasts potential Russian aggression following a cessation or freezing of the Ukraine conflict, assuming limited Russian capacity for multi-front warfare. Three scenarios are presented: a local war within six months, a regional Baltic war within two years, and a large-scale European attack within five years (absent US involvement). The assessment notably excludes potential NATO defense enhancements. These projections are further contextualized by President Trump’s calls for increased NATO defense spending and his past statements regarding potential US withdrawal or encouragement of Russian attacks against financially non-compliant members.
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Russia could start a major war in Europe within five years, according to a warning from an intelligence agency. This assertion immediately raises questions. Isn’t a major war, instigated by Russia, already underway in Europe? The current conflict in Ukraine significantly depletes Russia’s military resources, manpower, and equipment, making another large-scale offensive seem highly improbable.
The logistical challenges alone would be insurmountable. Russia’s struggle in Ukraine, relying on outdated equipment and even resorting to donkeys for transport, highlights a severe lack of readiness for a broader conflict. Their current performance casts significant doubt on their ability to wage a successful war against a much larger, better-equipped opponent.
The idea that Russia could win in Ukraine, pacify the country, and then rebuild its military sufficiently to take on the rest of Europe within five years rests on a multitude of highly optimistic assumptions. It assumes complete victory in Ukraine, the successful reconstitution of their forces with modern equipment, and a dramatic increase in manufacturing capacity, all while overcoming their current dependence on foreign sources for ammunition and other supplies.
Furthermore, such a scenario presupposes Russia maintaining its economic ties with China and India, and a political environment favorable to Russian ambitions, including, perhaps surprisingly, the absence of a Democratic President in the United States. To successfully prosecute a war against multiple NATO countries, superior air power would be crucial, a considerable advantage currently held by the West. Russia’s current struggles in Ukraine hardly suggest they possess this capacity.
Even without considering the potential response from NATO, the sheer economic strain would be devastating. Russia’s economy is already severely weakened, largely propped up by shadow credits and facing mounting sanctions. Their current reliance on unconventional methods for military logistics suggests deep-seated resource shortages. The already strained resources are not only limited but also highly inefficient and would be quickly overwhelmed by the costs of such a large-scale undertaking.
The notion that Russia could launch another major war in the next five years seems far-fetched. The scale of their current military failures, the ensuing economic hardship, and the substantial military advantages held by potential opponents make such a scenario highly unlikely. A more realistic assessment would likely extend the timeline considerably, suggesting ten or even fifteen years for Russia to potentially recover and rearm. Even then, the outcome would remain heavily in doubt.
The idea that a major power such as Russia would initiate such a reckless act, especially given its current predicament, seems incredibly implausible. While it’s undeniable that the Russian regime exhibits a culture centered around conquest, it’s difficult to see how a new, large-scale war would benefit them. The devastation caused by the conflict in Ukraine—not only militarily but also economically and diplomatically—is immense.
Furthermore, the current situation has significantly strengthened NATO, bolstering its resolve and preparedness, along with increasing its membership. Any incursion into NATO territory would trigger an immediate and forceful response, making such a move exceptionally risky and strategically unwise. In short, Russia is simply not in a position, militarily, economically, or strategically, to initiate a war with Europe on the scale suggested. The existing conflict in Ukraine should serve as a powerful and sobering illustration of this reality. Five years is simply far too short a timeline for Russia to overcome the immense obstacles standing in its way.