By Matt Underwood The Baltic region is bracing itself for a potential conflict, fueled by escalating tensions between Russia and the United States over Ukraine’s future. Intelligence suggests that Russia is significantly expanding its military capabilities, preparing for a possible large-scale confrontation with NATO within the next five years, particularly if NATO appears weak. This worry is amplified by concerns that the US might withdraw troops from the region, a move that would have devastating consequences.
The Baltic states – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia – are on the front lines of this looming crisis. Having once been part of the Soviet Union, they understand the threat posed by Russia intimately. Lithuania, for example, has already responded by reinstituting conscription, doubling its military strength, and dramatically increasing its defense spending to among the highest levels within NATO. Latvia, while currently assessing the immediate risk of a Russian invasion as low, recognizes the danger of a rebuilt and resurgent Russian military once the conflict in Ukraine concludes.
Russia’s military buildup is undeniable. Despite substantial losses in Ukraine, Moscow is expanding its active military to 1.5 million troops. This is clearly part of a broader strategy to destabilize NATO, increase Russian influence, and challenge the US’s global role. The threat is not only military; the region is experiencing a pervasive form of hybrid warfare, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and pro-Russian provocations designed to destabilize the region. Critical infrastructure has already been targeted, further exacerbating political tensions.
In response, the Baltic States are actively strengthening their defenses. Border fortifications along the Russian and Belarusian frontiers are being reinforced by Latvia and Estonia. All three nations have severed their dependence on the Soviet-era electricity grid and integrated into the European power system to avoid energy blackmail. The core question, however, remains: what happens if Ukraine falls? The Baltic states are preparing for an outcome they desperately hope to avoid. While the Baltic countries, along with Poland, Finland, and Sweden, recognized the seriousness of the situation early on, much of the rest of Europe initially displayed a concerning lack of preparedness and continues to lag in its response, particularly regarding Moldova’s security.
The historical context is vital to understanding the Baltic states’ preparedness. Their recent liberation from Russian influence has fostered a deep-seated desire for independence and a keen awareness of potential threats. Poland shares a similar history, while Finland has firsthand experience of warfare with Russia, including territorial losses. Sweden, while maintaining neutrality for a long period, has historically viewed Russia with caution, illustrated by past conscription practices and common expressions like “Om ryssen kommer” (“If the Russians come”) reflecting a preparedness for potential conflict. This contrasts sharply with many Western European countries, which lacked the same historical context of direct Russian aggression and consequently invested less in defense, leaving their populations less prepared mentally and militarily.
The concerns extend beyond the immediate Baltic region. There are worries that Russia’s ambitions go far beyond Ukraine. Some anticipate attempts to extend control over Moldova, Armenia, and even Kazakhstan, which has a large Russian population and significant natural resources. This sentiment is reinforced by the prevailing belief among those in the Baltic States and their close allies that Russia will inevitably act aggressively if it is not met with sufficient deterrence. Therefore, the call for increased military spending and a more robust regional defense alliance, even including nuclear deterrence, is gaining traction. The belief is that only a significant threat, perhaps the threat of nuclear retaliation, would be sufficient to deter further Russian aggression.
This heightened state of alert is not merely fear-mongering. There’s a growing consensus that a large-scale European war is increasingly probable, and that this outcome is largely a result of a failure of Western leadership in the face of Russian aggression. The widespread sentiment is that only by significantly increasing defense spending and establishing a much stronger regional alliance, including possibly nuclear weapons, will the threat of Russian aggression be adequately addressed. The absence of such unified action is perceived by many as an invitation to further conflict. The potential for a disastrous military conflict remains high, underlining the dire situation and the urgent need for decisive action.