By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In a recent interview, Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed his country’s desire to end the war with Russia in 2025, contingent upon securing international security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. This objective aligns with the incoming U.S. administration’s aim to resolve the conflict within 100 days of inauguration, though details of any peace plan remain undisclosed. Potential strategies under consideration include delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership in exchange for continued Western support and the deployment of European peacekeepers. Zelensky affirmed Ukraine’s need for increased international cooperation to achieve this goal.
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Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has stated his country’s unwavering commitment to securing robust security guarantees and ending the ongoing war with Russia by 2025. This ambitious goal requires a multifaceted approach, acknowledging the failures of past security assurances and the need for concrete actions rather than mere promises. The notion of relying on the word of Russia, given its history of broken treaties and aggressive actions, seems unrealistic and foolish. Past “pinky-swear” agreements have proven utterly worthless, underscoring the need for more substantial guarantees.
The idea of relying on international organizations like the UN for security is equally problematic. The UN’s track record in peacekeeping and enforcing resolutions demonstrates a fundamental lack of power to effectively counter a determined aggressor. Instances of UN forces being outmatched by armed groups in various conflicts highlight their limitations, suggesting they are unlikely to offer the necessary protection for Ukraine.
Therefore, alternative methods of securing Ukraine’s future need exploration. A strong military capable of deterring aggression is paramount. While the West has provided significant military aid, ensuring Ukraine possesses the firepower to withstand future attacks remains crucial. This could involve supplying advanced weaponry, including long-range systems, allowing Ukraine to effectively strike deep within Russian territory, as a means of deterrence. The provision of sufficient ammunition to sustain a protracted conflict is also essential. This is not merely about winning battles, but about creating a scenario where Russia is forced to negotiate under significantly unfavorable conditions. A protracted and costly war for Russia, with substantial military losses, will likely incentivize them to concede at the negotiating table.
The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is often discussed, but this is not a straightforward solution. NATO membership is not guaranteed, particularly considering potential opposition from certain members. Even with NATO membership, the thorny issue of territories currently under Russian occupation remains. A compromise involving NATO protection for territories under Ukrainian control, while leaving disputed regions to be resolved later, might be a viable path. However, this would require a significant deviation from standard NATO protocols and likely face internal disputes.
The possibility of Ukraine developing its own nuclear arsenal has been suggested. This drastic measure, though raising serious international concerns, could provide an extremely strong deterrent against future Russian aggression, thereby functioning as the ultimate security guarantee. However, procuring nuclear weapons presents considerable challenges, not least of which is the potential for escalating the conflict drastically and potentially triggering a global crisis. Furthermore, international pressure against nuclear proliferation is a significant hurdle. Nevertheless, it underscores the desperation to find means to guarantee national security against an untrustworthy adversary.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s success in achieving lasting peace and security hinges on a blend of strategies. A combination of significant military aid, strong international partnerships that transcend mere promises, and potentially, the development of a potent deterrent force, may be required. Zelenskyy’s stated goal of ending the conflict by 2025 is ambitious, but achieving tangible security guarantees, rather than relying on empty pledges, is the key to its realization. The focus needs to be on creating a situation where Russia is compelled to concede terms favourable to Ukraine, safeguarding its sovereignty and long-term security, not just for the sake of a signed agreement, but for the sake of a truly stable peace. The true guarantee lies in effectively shifting the balance of power, making aggression against Ukraine too costly to contemplate.