By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Following a prolonged political deadlock, Lebanon elected army chief Joseph Aoun as its new president, ending a two-year vacancy. Aoun’s election, facilitated by US and Saudi support, marks a shift away from Iran-backed Hezbollah’s influence. In his inaugural address, Aoun pledged to address Lebanon’s multifaceted crises and to establish the state’s monopoly on weapons, directly challenging Hezbollah’s military power. This comes amidst Hezbollah’s weakened position following a recent conflict with Israel and the subsequent ceasefire agreement. Aoun’s presidency signals a potential realignment of power dynamics within Lebanon.
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Lebanon’s parliament has elected the US-backed army chief, Joseph Aoun, as the country’s next president, finally ending a protracted political stalemate and a significant presidential vacuum that lasted over two years. This decisive move marks a turning point in Lebanese politics, resolving a crisis that had deeply divided the nation along pro-Western and pro-Iranian lines.
The election of General Aoun followed intense diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United States to garner sufficient parliamentary support. His close ties to both Washington and Riyadh played a crucial role in his successful bid for the presidency. This support, however, has sparked debate, with some questioning whether it constitutes election interference. The concern is understandable given the history of Western intervention in the region and the potential for such actions to undermine democratic processes.
Lebanon had been without a president since October 2022, following the conclusion of Michel Aoun’s (no relation to Joseph Aoun) term. The former president enjoyed the backing of the Iran-supported Hezbollah, and negotiations to select a successor proved unsuccessful, further exacerbating existing tensions within the country. Twelve previous attempts to elect a president over the past two years had all failed, underscoring the depth of the political deadlock.
The recent US-brokered ceasefire agreement that concluded a war between Hezbollah and Israel in November 2023 also appears to have significantly accelerated the presidential election process. The conflict inflicted considerable damage on Hezbollah, weakening its influence and potentially paving the way for a shift in the political landscape. The Lebanese army, while not directly involved in the war, plays a central role in enforcing the ceasefire agreement, including deploying troops to areas previously controlled by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, bordering Israel. This deployment is a crucial element of the peace accord and requires the cooperation of all parties involved.
Lebanon’s unique confessional power-sharing system dictates that the president must be a Maronite Christian. General Aoun’s adherence to this requirement, along with his background and perceived neutrality, made him a viable candidate for many Lebanese lawmakers, though it’s also a factor that limited the pool of potential candidates significantly. The fact that he doesn’t have a strong backing political party could both hinder or help him in the job; he’ll have trouble passing legislation without broad support but will also be less beholden to specific political factions.
The election of a US-backed leader in a volatile region like the Middle East invariably raises concerns about the long-term consequences. While some hope this will bring stability and economic recovery, others remain skeptical. There’s a legitimate concern that the Western support for General Aoun could create resentment and further destabilize the already fragile situation.
However, many also view this election as the best possible outcome under the circumstances. The alternative – continued political paralysis and the potential for further conflict – seemed far less desirable. The fact that the election was conducted through established parliamentary procedures, as opposed to a military coup, is important to note. While external influence was undeniable, the process itself remained largely within Lebanon’s constitutional framework.
It’s vital to acknowledge that Lebanon faces immense challenges. The country’s economy is in ruins, and deep-seated sectarian divisions remain. The success of General Aoun’s presidency hinges on his ability to unite the country, implement meaningful reforms, and address the root causes of the ongoing crisis. His initial speech, highlighting the need for the state to maintain a monopoly on force and expressing support for a two-state solution for Israel-Palestine, demonstrates his ambitious goals. Whether he can achieve these aims amidst the complex dynamics of Lebanese politics and regional power struggles remains to be seen.
This election, though potentially fraught with complexities, offers a glimmer of hope for Lebanon. It represents the possibility of a much-needed return to political stability, providing a foundation for addressing the country’s many urgent problems. However, the long-term success of this shift in power will depend heavily on the actions and decisions of the newly elected president and the willingness of all parties to engage in constructive dialogue and cooperation. The road to recovery will undoubtedly be long and difficult, but this election marks an important first step.