By Matt Underwood Trump’s Paris climate exit will hit harder than in 2017 because the global landscape has shifted dramatically since his initial withdrawal. The world is no longer merely reacting to a surprising decision; it’s facing the consequences of years of inaction fueled by that decision, coupled with a deepening climate crisis.
Trump’s disregard for international agreements, epitomized by his “yo-yo” approach to treaties, has severely damaged US credibility. Allies are now less likely to trust any future commitments from the US, forcing them to diversify their partnerships and potentially leaving the US isolated on the world stage. Canada, for instance, is actively pursuing trade relationships with China, a move spurred by a lack of confidence in US reliability.
The economic impact of this exit will be more pronounced now. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is poised to levy significant taxes on carbon-intensive US exports, directly impacting US businesses and potentially triggering a trade war. This wasn’t a factor in 2017, adding a new layer of economic vulnerability.
The longer the US remains outside the Paris Agreement, the more severe the climate crisis becomes. The Doomsday Clock, set at a record-breaking 90 seconds to midnight, underscores the urgent need for global cooperation, a cooperation hindered by US absence. This increased urgency heightens the negative consequences of the US’s withdrawal, making it a much more significant impediment to climate action than it was in 2017.
Beyond the economic and environmental repercussions, Trump’s actions undermine global stability. Russia and China, benefiting from a fractured West, are seizing the opportunity to expand their influence. A divided world, weakened by the US’s unpredictable behavior, is far more susceptible to geopolitical instability and conflict.
The US’s own internal political polarization adds another layer of complexity. The persistent denial of climate change by a significant portion of the US population makes it extremely challenging to implement effective policies, even if the US were to rejoin the Paris Agreement. This internal division renders the US less effective in achieving international cooperation, amplifying the negative effects of the initial withdrawal.
The shift in global power dynamics also intensifies the impact. In 2017, China’s rise as a global power was developing; now, it’s a more established reality. China’s growing influence will be further strengthened by the US’s continued absence from the Paris Agreement, potentially shifting global leadership in ways detrimental to Western interests.
The current situation feels far more precarious than in 2017. The consequences extend beyond economics and the environment, affecting international relations, national security, and even public health. The initial withdrawal was met with concern; today, it’s viewed as a significant contributor to global instability and a setback to international cooperation on critical issues.
The US’s unreliable behavior, evident in the capricious implementation and renegotiation of trade deals like NAFTA, only exacerbates the situation. The unpredictability of US foreign policy makes it difficult for other nations to trust any future commitments, leading to a decline in global trust and cooperation.
Simply put, the world has changed since 2017. The climate crisis has intensified, geopolitical tensions are higher, and the consequences of inaction are far more dire. This makes Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement even more damaging and far-reaching than it was when it first occurred. The long-term impact will almost certainly be much greater than initially anticipated.