By Matt Underwood Approval of US leadership among NATO members has plummeted to its lowest point during President Biden’s term, according to a recent Gallup poll. The median approval rating in 2024 dipped to a mere 35 percent, a significant decrease from the 40 percent recorded in 2023, and even further down from the 41 percent seen in 2021. This sharp decline underscores a growing concern among NATO allies regarding the direction of US foreign policy.
The contrast with the previous administration is stark. While President Biden’s approval ratings, although low, still significantly outperform those of his predecessor. During Trump’s final year, approval among NATO members bottomed out at a dismal 18 percent, with a staggering 72 percent disapproval. This suggests that while current dissatisfaction is substantial, the current administration still maintains a level of trust and confidence among its allies that Trump’s administration wholly failed to garner. This begs the question of what circumstances have led to such a drastic decline in confidence, even under a comparatively more conventional president.
The recent Gallup poll highlights a deep unease amongst NATO allies. The decline isn’t just a matter of fluctuating numbers; it reflects a fundamental shift in perception. The reasons behind this are complex and multifaceted, but one factor stands out: the unpredictable and often contradictory nature of recent US foreign policy. The sheer unpredictability of the past few years has eroded confidence and predictability in the US’s role as a reliable and consistent global leader, with the uncertainty of the United States’ own political sphere feeding into that unpredictability.
The perception of the US siding with Russia on critical European issues has undoubtedly damaged its standing. Such a notion, even if perceived rather than factual, would severely strain the very foundation of the transatlantic alliance and raise fundamental questions about the United States’ commitment to its allies’ security. The idea that the US would somehow align itself with Russia against European interests is profoundly unsettling for NATO allies and deeply undermines the confidence they place in American leadership.
Furthermore, the financial burden imposed on European NATO members fuels resentment. Demands for increased contributions, coupled with an unclear return on investment, creates frustration and breeds suspicion. This financial pressure, combined with a sense that the US is prioritizing its own interests above the collective security of the alliance, fuels a growing sense of distrust among European members. Many nations may simply feel that the demands placed upon them by the US are not proportionate to the benefits received.
The internal political divisions within the United States also contribute to the instability that is impacting NATO’s trust in American leadership. The deep partisan divides, combined with repeated cycles of political instability, create an atmosphere of uncertainty and unpredictability that spills over into international relations. The internal conflict only magnifies the negative effects of an inconsistent and often unpredictable foreign policy.
The timing of the Gallup poll’s release, hours before President Biden’s foreign policy address, is telling. The President’s planned focus on strengthening America’s global standing reflects a clear recognition of the challenges posed by the declining approval ratings. However, given the current political climate and the depth of the concerns highlighted by the poll, the address may find it challenging to mend the frayed ties within the NATO alliance.
The ongoing debate surrounding the US’s role within NATO extends beyond simple approval ratings. It touches upon the fundamental nature of the alliance itself. Is the United States’ leadership still a necessity for collective security? Is this a necessary evolution of a post-cold war security architecture? What will the transatlantic security apparatus look like in a multipolar world? The very foundations of transatlantic cooperation are being questioned, and this is far from a simple issue of approval or disapproval.
Ultimately, the Gallup poll’s findings present a serious challenge to the United States. Restoring trust and confidence among NATO allies will require more than just rhetoric. It demands concrete actions, a consistent and predictable foreign policy, and a renewed commitment to shared security concerns. Until such actions are taken, the downward trend in approval ratings is likely to continue, posing a significant risk to the integrity and effectiveness of the NATO alliance. The need for a clear, confident, and consistent US approach to foreign policy cannot be overstated, particularly given the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape.