By John Q. Hosedrinker 
President Xi Jinping reiterated China’s unwavering commitment to “reunification” with Taiwan in his New Year’s address, asserting that this historical trend is unstoppable. Beijing’s increased military presence near Taiwan, characterized by near-daily incursions, underscores this commitment. While Taiwan’s government rejects China’s claims of sovereignty, maintaining its residents’ right to self-determination, Xi emphasized the shared familial bond between both sides of the strait. Rising tensions, particularly following the election of President Lai Ching-te, further highlight the precarious situation in the Taiwan Strait.
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Xi Jinping’s recent assertion that “no one can stop China’s “reunification” with Taiwan” has sparked a flurry of reactions, ranging from skepticism to outright alarm. The claim itself isn’t new; China has been making similar pronouncements for decades. The fact that these pronouncements haven’t translated into action raises questions about their actual significance and whether they should be viewed as credible threats or merely propaganda.
The repeated emphasis on “reunification” also begs the question of what this actually entails from Taiwan’s perspective. For many Taiwanese, the idea of being forcibly integrated into the People’s Republic of China is unacceptable, given their distinct culture, democratic institutions, and societal values. The very term “reunification” implies a prior unity that never truly existed, overlooking the historical and political realities of Taiwan’s separate development.
The economic implications of a potential invasion are staggering. Taiwan is a global powerhouse in semiconductor manufacturing, and any disruption to its production would trigger a catastrophic worldwide chip shortage, dwarfing even the disruptions experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. This economic fallout would undoubtedly impact China itself, potentially undermining its own economic stability and triggering international backlash.
This potential economic chaos isn’t just theoretical. Taiwan has made it clear that in the event of an invasion, it would likely destroy its chip-making facilities to prevent them from falling into Chinese hands. While the US is investing in domestic chip production, it’s not yet a sufficient substitute for Taiwan’s crucial role in the global semiconductor supply chain. The resulting global economic turmoil would almost certainly be blamed on China, leading to potentially severe international sanctions and reduced trade.
Many see Xi’s pronouncements as a distraction tactic, aimed at diverting attention from China’s own internal problems. The country faces significant economic challenges and growing internal dissent, and a focus on Taiwan could serve to galvanize nationalistic sentiment and deflect from these domestic issues. This mirrors the strategies of other authoritarian regimes, using external threats to consolidate power and suppress internal criticism.
The analogy of leaving a car at a pub for 80 years is apt. While China may claim historical ties to Taiwan, the island has developed a separate and distinct identity over decades. Attempts to claim Taiwan as part of China today ignore this reality and disregard the self-determination of the Taiwanese people. The situation is far more nuanced than simple claims of “reunification” suggest.
The potential for military conflict is significant and fraught with danger. The United States has indicated that it would likely intervene in any Chinese invasion attempt, raising the spectre of a major regional, if not global, conflict with potentially devastating consequences. The consequences are too high for reckless action. It’s a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, with potentially catastrophic consequences for all involved.
Furthermore, the economic dependence on Chinese goods by many countries, including the West, complicates matters. The global reliance on China for various products and services could hinder any concerted international effort to deter an invasion. This highlights the need for a diversified and more resilient global supply chain to lessen reliance on any single nation.
The events in Ukraine serve as a sobering reminder of the unpredictable nature of international conflicts. Xi’s pronouncements, much like Putin’s prior boasts, should not be dismissed as mere bluster. The risks are significant, and the potential for miscalculation and escalation is considerable. The international community must actively work to de-escalate tensions and find a peaceful resolution, emphasizing diplomacy and engagement with Taiwan’s own aspirations for its future. Ignoring the situation would be a dangerous gamble.
Ultimately, the future of Taiwan rests with the Taiwanese people themselves. Any resolution must respect their self-determination and their right to chart their own course. The current rhetoric, however assertive, cannot override the will of the Taiwanese people and the complex geopolitical realities of the situation. A peaceful and mutually acceptable solution, respecting the rights and choices of all involved, remains the most desirable—and perhaps only—viable outcome.