By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Throughout 2024, Russian forces made significant territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, capturing key cities like Avdiivka and Vuhledar and steadily advancing towards Pokrovsk. Simultaneously, a Russian offensive in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, though initially rapid, failed to achieve major breakthroughs, while a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast resulted in substantial territory loss. The year concluded with Ukraine facing a manpower shortage, looming defeats in several key battles, and the threat of a major Russian counteroffensive involving North Korean troops. The ongoing battles in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, coupled with a precarious situation in Kursk Oblast, paint a grim picture for Ukraine’s military prospects.
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Ukraine ends the year battered, undeniably suffering under the relentless pressure of the Russian military. The conflict, far from over, continues to rage across multiple fronts, with Russian forces pushing aggressively north, east, and south. The sheer scale of human suffering is heartbreaking, a testament to the brutality of the ongoing war. While material gains might seem to favor Russia at times, the true measure of success in this conflict is the long-term sustainability of each side’s war effort. A quick glance at other prolonged conflicts demonstrates how rapidly fortunes can change, even with seemingly insurmountable advantages.
Russia’s own position, however, is far from secure. Its economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, grappling with soaring inflation and crippling interest rates. The depletion of crucial military equipment, including a significant shortfall in tank production and artillery reserves, paints a grim picture of Russia’s capacity for sustained offensive action. The disparity between lost and newly produced equipment highlights the significant material cost of Russia’s war effort. This creates a perilous race against time; a contest to see which nation’s resources will fail first. The outcome, grimly, hinges heavily on the continued support from the West for Ukraine. Without this vital lifeline, Ukraine’s ability to resist could be severely undermined.
Continued Western support is critical, not only for sustaining the Ukrainian fight, but also for fostering Ukraine’s own internal capacity for military production. The longer the conflict endures, the greater the chance Ukraine’s independent military manufacturing capabilities can develop and potentially even surpass its current reliance on foreign aid. Simultaneously, Russia is experiencing staggering losses, far exceeding any previous conflicts in terms of human casualties. These losses are substantial, impacting their capability and morale. Furthermore, their international standing has suffered a significant blow, with the loss of key allies and a growing reliance on less reliable partners.
The Russian strategy appears focused on grinding down Ukrainian resistance through attrition, aiming to break both Ukraine’s will to fight and its access to crucial Western support. This brutal war of attrition is not just claiming lives, but also dismantling infrastructure. Russia’s own oil infrastructure has taken substantial hits, a setback that promises to further hamper its already strained resources. However, the perception of who is “winning” is highly subjective. While Russia makes incremental territorial gains, these victories come at an exorbitant cost, in both human lives and critical military hardware. It’s a Pyrrhic victory at best.
The narrative of the war is complex and often contradictory. Some reports highlight significant Russian losses, detailing staggering numbers of casualties and destroyed equipment. Conversely, others focus on Russian advances and Ukrainian setbacks, often overshadowing the immense human cost of the conflict. These conflicting reports create a confusing and often frustrating picture for observers. The reality is, both sides are suffering devastating losses. While Ukraine is enduring immense pain and suffering, its resilience is remarkable. The conflict has endured longer than many predicted, showcasing a powerful resistance.
The question of whether or not Ukraine is “losing” is complex and dependent on one’s perspective and the chosen metrics for assessment. While Russia may be making territorial gains in some areas, these gains are often fleeting and dearly bought. The long-term consequences of the occupation for Russia remain to be seen. Governing a hostile population, facing ongoing insurgency, could prove a far more challenging undertaking than securing initial territorial control. The long-term viability of such an occupation may prove untenable. The war is not merely a battle for territory, but a clash of wills, and ultimately, the side that can sustain the fight the longest will prevail. The future of the conflict hinges not only on military strength but on the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the continued support of its international allies.