By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Following the reported overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that the event demonstrates the defeatability of Russia and its allies. This assessment was echoed by several other European leaders, including Lithuania’s and Czech’s prime ministers and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, who all cited Syria as evidence of Russia’s weakening position. The swift fall of Assad’s regime, after over two decades in power, is being interpreted as a significant symbolic victory for those opposing Russia’s influence. These statements highlight a growing belief among European leaders that Russia’s military capabilities and influence are overestimated.
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The recent developments in Syria, culminating in the removal of al-Assad, offer a powerful lesson about the limitations of seemingly insurmountable power. For years, the alliance between Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia appeared invincible, their relentless campaign seemingly destined to secure al-Assad’s grip on power. The swift and unexpected collapse of their campaign underscores a crucial point: even seemingly entrenched regimes and formidable alliances can be defeated.
This dramatic shift in Syria’s power dynamic shouldn’t be underestimated. It’s a significant blow to Russia and Iran, revealing vulnerabilities previously hidden beneath a veneer of invincibility. The narrative of untouchable power carefully cultivated by these actors is now demonstrably false. The implications for the regional power balance are profound, and the international community needs to fully grasp this newfound reality.
The success in Syria should serve as a potent reminder of Russia’s defeatability. The Kremlin often projects an image of unassailable strength, a tactic employed to deter potential adversaries and exert undue influence on the world stage. However, recent events, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, debunk this carefully constructed illusion. Ukraine, despite facing overwhelming odds and lacking the resources of its larger neighbor, continues to resist the Russian invasion, proving the Kremlin’s military might is not as formidable as its propaganda suggests.
It’s not simply about military might; Russia’s economic vulnerabilities are also significant. The prolonged conflict in Ukraine, coupled with international sanctions, has severely strained the Russian economy, revealing cracks in its seemingly robust financial foundation. This economic fragility is a crucial factor that contributes to its overall weakness. Further, the reliance on allies like Belarus and Chechnya, and the need to supplement troops and resources from North Korea demonstrate a lack of domestic capacity and a serious decline in military readiness.
The international community has, for too long, underestimated the possibility of a Russian defeat. The prevailing sentiment seems to favor a “weakened Russia” rather than a decisively defeated one. This half-hearted approach is insufficient and potentially dangerous. A more decisive stance is needed, one that recognizes the possibility, and indeed, the desirability of a complete Russian defeat. This doesn’t necessitate a nuclear escalation – a comprehensive approach involving sustained economic pressure, coupled with unwavering support for Ukraine and other potential resistance movements, presents a viable path.
The argument that a defeated Russia poses unknown risks overlooks the already existing dangers posed by a belligerent and expansionist Russia. The current situation, where Russia feels emboldened to act with impunity, presents far greater long-term risks than any potential instability following a decisive defeat. The Kremlin’s behavior in Ukraine and Syria clearly indicates that appeasement only emboldens aggression.
There’s also a critical need to move beyond simplistic notions of victory and defeat. While a complete military defeat might be difficult, the ultimate goal should be to dismantle the current Russian regime’s ability to wage aggressive wars and destabilize the global order. This would require a concerted effort from the international community, employing a combination of economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and support for democratic forces within Russia itself. The Syrian experience shows that even seemingly entrenched powers can crumble under pressure, offering a blueprint for a strategy to effectively counter Russia’s aggression.
The events in Syria are not simply a regional concern; they offer a crucial lesson for the international community. The narrative of an unconquerable Russia must be challenged and replaced with a realistic assessment of its vulnerabilities. The world must seize this opportunity to re-evaluate its approach to Russia and craft a strategy that doesn’t shy away from the possibility, indeed the necessity, of seeing the current Russian regime defeated. Only then can we truly build a safer and more stable world order.