By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led rebel forces, having recently captured Aleppo and Hama, are within 20 kilometers of Damascus, according to rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani. This advance follows significant rebel gains against the Assad regime, backed by Iran and Russia. The rebels, under the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance, have also reportedly secured control of Daraa province. These rapid advances represent a major shift in the Syrian conflict.
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Rebel forces are reportedly just 20 kilometers from Damascus, the Syrian capital, a development that has sent shockwaves throughout the region and the world. This incredibly swift advance has many wondering if the city will actually fall, and what the consequences would be. The speed of the rebel advance is astonishing; thirteen years of conflict, immense investment of resources, and the backing of major powers like Russia seem to have been rendered almost meaningless in a matter of days.
The next 48 hours are poised to be pivotal. The question isn’t just whether the rebels can capture Damascus, but what their next move would be. Securing the capital would be a monumental victory, but the strategic implications are vast. The potential consequences extend far beyond Syria’s borders, impacting regional stability and the global balance of power.
One of the most intriguing questions revolves around the fate of the Russian naval base at Tartus. If the rebels capture Damascus, would they then attempt to seize Tartus? This would represent a significant blow to Russia, not only militarily, but also symbolically. Russia’s presence in Tartus is a key component of its projection of power in the Mediterranean, and its loss would be a major setback for Russian geopolitical ambitions.
The dynamics among various rebel groups are also crucial. Are these rebels aligned with Turkey, are they affiliated with ISIS, or are they supported by other foreign powers, like the US? The lack of clarity on their exact affiliations adds to the uncertainty and complexity of the situation. This lack of information makes predicting their next moves very difficult.
The situation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is equally uncertain. His whereabouts are currently unknown, and it seems likely that he has already left Damascus, perhaps even Syria altogether. Should he flee the country, it could signal the definitive end of his regime and his influence within Syria. His potential destinations might be Russia or Iran, countries that have been close allies throughout the long conflict.
The ongoing conflict paints a concerning picture regarding the potential future governance of Syria. Even if the rebels succeed in overthrowing Assad, a different set of challenges awaits. The risk of power struggles among various rebel factions, potentially including those with links to Al-Qaeda or ISIS, makes the prospect of a stable and peaceful Syria extremely uncertain. This raises serious concerns about the future of the Syrian people and the overall stability of the region.
The rapid rebel advance has also sparked intense speculation regarding Russia’s response. Many believe that Russia’s military intervention in Syria was intended to shore up Assad’s regime, yet the current situation suggests that this objective is now failing spectacularly. Some have even speculated about the possibility of Russia resorting to extreme measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, though this seems improbable given the potential consequences.
The complete collapse of Assad’s military raises many questions about its effectiveness and the reasons for its apparent inability to repel the rebel advance. The speed with which the rebels have advanced suggests a significant lack of morale and readiness among Assad’s forces, a collapse that’s been many years in the making.
It’s clear this situation has significant ramifications for Russia. Not only is it facing the imminent loss of a key ally in a strategically important region, but its own credibility and ability to project power globally are also being severely undermined. This failure will likely have a cascading effect on Russian operations in Africa and other regions where it has sought to exert influence.
It remains to be seen what the next few days will bring, but the current situation in Syria marks a dramatic turning point in the ongoing conflict. The swift advance of rebel forces on Damascus indicates a significant shift in power dynamics, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Syria, its neighbors, and the global geopolitical landscape. This unexpected shift is likely to have long-lasting implications for the region’s stability and future.