By Matt Underwood Putin’s overseas empire is crumbling, a Jenga tower teetering on the brink of collapse. The war in Ukraine, far from being a victory, has drained Russia’s resources, leaving its military weakened and its economy teetering. This isn’t just about Ukraine; it’s about a broader unraveling of influence, a decline that extends far beyond its borders.
Putin’s belief that he can outlast Ukraine and the West is a dangerous miscalculation. His reliance on purchasing weapons and soldiers from nations like North Korea and Iran – his “arsenals of evil” – highlights his desperation and the precariousness of his position. This isn’t a sustainable strategy; it’s a last-ditch effort to prop up a failing system.
The current situation demands a decisive response. Anything less than the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the restoration of its 1991 borders is unacceptable. This requires a multi-pronged approach, leveraging diplomatic pressure, information warfare, military support, and economic sanctions. We must maintain this pressure, not let up now, regardless of the political climate.
The recent political shifts in the United States, while potentially beneficial to Putin in the short term, don’t change the fundamental reality of Russia’s weakening position. Even a hypothetical shift in US policy toward a more accommodating stance towards Russia wouldn’t magically solve Russia’s internal problems or replenish its depleted resources. The damage inflicted by the war in Ukraine is profound and lasting.
The claim that Russia has made huge advancements in its global standing is misleading. While it has forged some alliances, particularly with nations wary of Western influence, these are largely opportunistic and based on shared grievances rather than genuine mutual respect or strength. Russia’s actions in Ukraine have alienated many potential allies, and its growing isolation is a testament to the failure of its current strategy.
The suggestion that Russia’s setbacks are temporary, and that a shift to a “Eurasian Global Model” will benefit them massively, ignores the long-term consequences of its military adventures and economic mismanagement. The losses incurred in the war are staggering, both in terms of human life and material resources. These losses aren’t easily recouped.
The narrative that Russia is strategically positioned for a long game, possibly leading to a renegotiation of borders or even inclusion in NATO, is overly optimistic and ignores the severe internal pressures facing Putin’s regime. The very real possibility of internal upheaval and regime change remains a significant factor. The assumption that a new Russian leader would be necessarily worse is not inherently true; it could very well be someone more amenable to cooperation.
The argument that the focus on international terrorism after 9/11 allowed US gangs to flourish serves as a cautionary tale against complacency. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake by letting up on Putin now, only to face a more powerful and resurgent Russia later. The current opportunity to weaken Putin’s grip on power and foster lasting peace must not be squandered. To do so would be a profound strategic error.
Concerns about the impact on third-party nations, such as the possibility of increased power for groups like Al-Qaeda, must be weighed against the long-term consequences of allowing Putin to succeed. The current focus should be on maintaining sustained pressure and supporting Ukraine’s fight for self-determination.
The costs of continuing the war are significant for Russia, surpassing the resources available to them. The long-term repercussions for their economy and international standing will be severe, making it highly unlikely they can sustain this level of conflict indefinitely. The war is a draining expenditure of both manpower and resources, representing a massive cost to Russia that may well precipitate its downfall.
In short, Putin’s empire is not merely listing; it is collapsing. This is a critical moment, demanding sustained pressure, not premature concessions. Now is the time to ensure a lasting peace, not to allow a respite that would only allow Russia to regroup and rearm. The cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of decisive action now.