By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The potential for a major crisis within the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement looms large, casting doubt on whether Donald Trump will actually be inaugurated on January 20th. Internal divisions and challenges to Trump’s legitimacy are escalating, creating significant uncertainty surrounding the upcoming inauguration. These issues could result in significant disruptions or even prevent the scheduled event from taking place. The situation remains highly volatile with various factions vying for influence within the movement. This unprecedented uncertainty highlights the fragility of the political landscape.
Read the original article here
The prospect of a MAGA crisis preventing Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th is a captivating, albeit unlikely, scenario. The sheer chaos surrounding the Republican Party’s internal struggles, particularly their protracted Speaker of the House election, fuels speculation about a constitutional crisis that could derail the planned inauguration.
The idea hinges on the potential for a complete breakdown in the House of Representatives’ ability to function before the inauguration date. Without a Speaker elected to certify the election results, the line of succession becomes a subject of intense debate, with various interpretations of the Constitution presented. Some argue that the process could still proceed despite the absence of a Speaker, perhaps through the House Clerk or a temporary Speaker. Others point to the President of the Senate (Chuck Grassley in this case) assuming the presidency according to the line of succession. This scenario, while intriguing, seems improbable given the inherent political dynamics and the potential for intense legal battles that would surely follow.
Despite the constitutional ambiguities, many believe such a scenario is highly improbable. The Republicans, despite their internal divisions, are unlikely to allow a situation to unfold that would hand the presidency to someone outside their party. This is not to say the current political climate isn’t fraught with tension; the struggle to elect a Speaker highlights significant divisions within the party. But the incentives for the Republicans to avoid such a dramatic outcome are considerable. A collapse leading to a non-Republican assuming the presidency would likely be viewed as a devastating failure, resulting in potential long-term political damage to the GOP.
Moreover, the media’s tendency toward sensationalized headlines and the public’s fascination with such scenarios often overshadow the practical realities of the situation. The sheer improbability of such a complete breakdown is often downplayed, and this focus on outlandish possibilities serves to distract from the more probable challenges ahead. In reality, a smooth transition of power, even amidst the political turbulence, remains far more likely than the complete derailment of the inauguration.
The fervent hopes of some that a constitutional crisis will prevent Trump’s inauguration should be tempered with realism. While the current political climate is indeed turbulent, the systemic mechanisms within the US government, while imperfect, are designed to prevent such dramatic disruptions. The desire for such an outcome, while understandable given the deep concerns surrounding a potential Trump presidency, should not be mistaken for a likely or even plausible event. A more constructive focus should be directed towards other political strategies to address concerns about Trump and the Republican Party.
While the absence of a Speaker by January 20th undeniably represents a crisis in its own right, suggesting it would automatically prevent the inauguration is an overstatement. The constitutional pathways and the incentives within the political system make a last-minute change in the scheduled inauguration highly improbable. Despite the heated political discourse and the inherent volatility of the situation, the likelihood of Trump’s inauguration proceeding as planned remains significantly higher than the potential for a constitutional crisis that prevents it.
Therefore, although the thought experiment of a MAGA crisis preventing Trump’s inauguration on January 20th is engaging, it’s crucial to maintain a realistic perspective. The focus should not be on hoping for a constitutional breakdown to avert an unwanted outcome. Instead, energy should be redirected toward more impactful strategies to address legitimate political concerns within the existing frameworks of the system. While the current situation presents many challenges and anxieties, clinging to fantastical scenarios distracts from the more pragmatic and effective means of addressing them. The likely path is for Trump’s inauguration to proceed, and the focus should be on navigating the political realities of such an event, rather than clinging to the unlikelihood of its cancellation.