By John Q. Hosedrinker 
India’s reliance on Russia for defense equipment has plummeted from 76% in 2009 to 36% last year, reflecting a strategic shift towards Western suppliers. This diversification includes significant contracts with US firms, totaling approximately $20 billion since 2008, and collaborations on projects like advanced jet engines. While some joint ventures with Russia continue, India’s increased domestic production and Western partnerships signal a reduced dependence on Moscow for its military needs, although nuclear cooperation remains largely with Russia. Despite this shift, India continues to purchase energy from Russia.
Read the original article here
India’s evolving relationship with its weapons suppliers is a complex story, far from a simple abandonment of Russian arms for American ones, as some headlines might suggest. The reality is a multifaceted shift driven by several key factors, including India’s ambitious domestic manufacturing goals and the changing geopolitical landscape.
The narrative of a complete switch to American weaponry is an oversimplification. India’s long-standing relationship with Russia, forged over decades of close military cooperation, isn’t dissolving overnight. While India is indeed diversifying its sources of military hardware, it’s not about wholly abandoning Russian equipment; instead it’s about reducing dependence and enhancing its indigenous capabilities.
The fighter jet sector showcases this nuanced approach. India’s significant investments in its own Tejas fighter jet and the gradual phasing out of its aging MiG-21 fleet point to a move towards self-reliance. While the SU-30MKI fleet will require continued maintenance, strategic alliances and domestic expertise will increasingly play a larger role, lessening reliance on Russia.
India’s missile program has similarly progressed significantly. Backed by its robust space program, India’s missile technology has developed into a considerable force, allowing it to decrease its reliance on Russian systems. This impressive progress demonstrates India’s growing confidence in its technological independence.
The same trajectory applies to naval shipbuilding. India has already built impressive capabilities in this area, now able to construct aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines domestically. This significantly diminishes the reliance on Russian or Ukrainian shipbuilders, allowing India greater control over its naval modernization efforts.
The growing partnership with Western arms manufacturers, notably Boeing and France, further underscores this diversification. The planned acquisition of Reaper drones also signals a move towards Western technology, broadening India’s options and reducing its dependence on a single supplier.
However, it’s crucial to remember that this shift doesn’t mean a complete severing of ties with Russia. India continues co-production of rifles and missiles with Russia, and Moscow remains a significant supplier of weaponry. The nuclear domain, in particular, remains an area of continued cooperation. This indicates that the relationship is adjusting rather than ending.
India’s motives are primarily driven by its need for self-sufficiency and the desire to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. This aligns with the country’s long-term “Make in India” initiative, aimed at fostering domestic industrial growth and reducing import dependence across various sectors.
Simultaneously, the Ukraine war and resultant Western sanctions on Russia have undoubtedly influenced India’s strategic thinking. The need to maintain a good relationship with the West to avoid sanctions while continuing trade with Russia is a complex balancing act.
The quality of Russian weaponry, compared to western alternatives, has also played a part in India’s decisions. The performance of Russian weapons systems in the Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about their effectiveness against modern adversaries.
Beyond the weapons themselves, the logistics, training, and command structures inherent in the Russian system seem to be areas requiring significant upgrade, and India is increasingly showing a willingness to invest heavily in these areas. The upgrading of existing Russian equipment with Israeli and French electronics further exemplifies this. India’s approach is to adopt the most effective technologies, regardless of origin.
Geopolitical factors are also at play. India’s ongoing border disputes with China and Pakistan necessitate a diversified and robust defense capability. This makes dependence on a single arms supplier highly risky.
Maintaining a strategic balance is key for India. While enhancing its ties with Western nations, especially the United States, India continues to maintain its relationship with Russia to balance its foreign policy and ensure geopolitical security. Abandonment, then, is not an accurate description of the situation. Instead, it’s a complex and sophisticated strategy of diversification and self-reliance.