By John Q. Hosedrinker 
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius advocates for a significant increase in Germany’s defense budget, proposing €80-90 billion annually starting in 2028, to address the escalating security situation stemming from Russia’s actions. He argues that this necessitates amending the debt brake to avoid hindering other crucial government functions. Pistorius also supports potential Bundeswehr deployment as peacekeepers in Ukraine, emphasizing Germany’s responsibilities as a leading NATO and European Union member. However, he stresses that German troops will not be deployed in Ukraine while active hostilities continue.
Read the original article here
The German Defense Minister’s statement, “If Putin attacks, we need to be able to wage war,” underscores a growing concern about Russia’s potential aggression. The statement highlights the need for a robust defense capability, recognizing that a potential attack wouldn’t be an isolated incident, but rather a culmination of prior conquests providing Russia with vast resources for military buildup.
This sentiment isn’t about a direct, immediate invasion by Russia against Germany. Instead, it acknowledges a potential scenario where Russia, after conquering other nations, possesses significantly enhanced military power. This necessitates Germany’s preparedness for a much larger conflict.
Such a scenario, while alarming, is not deemed highly probable by some. The Russian military’s struggles in Ukraine demonstrate limitations in their capacity to undertake large-scale conventional warfare against a NATO member. An attack on a NATO country would trigger Article 5, bringing the full might of the alliance into play, a risk Russia is likely to avoid.
However, the focus shouldn’t be solely on conventional warfare. The possibility of subtle attacks, such as widespread cyber warfare targeting critical infrastructure, deserves serious consideration. Disrupting power grids, water supplies, and internet access could cripple a nation, and Russia has a proven track record of such tactics. This highlights the urgent need for increased resilience and defensive measures against cyberattacks.
Concerns about Russia’s actions are compounded by the potential for alliances. A coordinated attack alongside China, targeting separate regions and diverting Western resources, presents a more complex and dangerous scenario. While China’s export-oriented economy might deter all-out war, the possibility of calculated aggression demands preparation.
Furthermore, the history of German energy policies plays a role in this conversation. Germany’s reliance on cheap Russian gas left it vulnerable to Russian influence, requiring a complete re-evaluation of energy independence and security. This dependence, partly fueled by lobbying efforts and political connections, is a crucial aspect to address in future defense and foreign policies. The sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines serves as a stark reminder of the need for diversified energy sources and reduced reliance on potential adversaries.
The assertion that a Russian attack is unlikely is often coupled with the argument that Russia lacks the resources for a full-scale war against Europe. However, this doesn’t diminish the need for a strong defense. It underscores the importance of focusing on deterring aggression in the first place. The idea of preventing Russia from acquiring smaller Baltic nations is put forward as a vital strategic priority to prevent escalation and conflict. Allowing further Russian expansion only increases the potential for future conflict.
There’s a widespread sentiment that past German leadership has made questionable decisions, including energy policy, migration policy, and economic policies. Criticisms regarding energy dependence on Russia, a slow response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and reluctance to utilize certain weaponry against Russia are frequently raised. These issues create a climate of distrust towards political pronouncements, hindering confidence in the country’s ability to effectively respond to a crisis.
Furthermore, the ongoing debate regarding the use of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine exemplifies the complex political landscape within Europe. The focus on strengthening military capabilities while maintaining a strict fiscal policy poses a substantial challenge. It suggests that focusing on deterring aggression might be more effective than solely investing in escalating military capabilities.
Ultimately, the idea that a Russian attack is improbable doesn’t eliminate the need for strong defensive capabilities. Preparedness through robust defenses and a multifaceted approach, including cyber security measures, is vital, regardless of the likelihood of a direct conflict. The past actions and policies of Germany and other European nations demonstrate both the importance and difficulty of effective defense and the need for proactive diplomacy.