By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Intelligence assessments consistently indicate that providing Ukraine with longer-range U.S. weapons, such as the ATACMS, does not significantly increase the risk of a Russian nuclear attack, despite Kremlin rhetoric to the contrary. This conclusion informed the Biden administration’s decision to authorize their use, a move intended to bolster Ukraine’s negotiating position. However, Russia is anticipated to intensify sabotage efforts against European infrastructure, and a potential Trump presidency poses a considerable threat to continued U.S. support for Ukraine. The ongoing war also presents challenges for Ukraine including battlefield losses and potential foreign troop deployments.
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Russia’s recent nuclear threats, though alarming, are highly unlikely to translate into an actual nuclear attack, according to assessments. The sheer global condemnation and retaliation that would immediately follow any nuclear launch would make such an action suicidal for Russia. It’s a high-stakes gamble with virtually no upside for Putin or his regime.
The potential consequences are too catastrophic to ignore. A nuclear strike would instantly make Russia enemy number one for the entire world, resulting in swift and devastating countermeasures. Such an escalation wouldn’t just bring about the end of the war; it would bring about the end of the Russian state as we know it.
The Kremlin’s pronouncements about nuclear war have been a consistent element of their strategy throughout the conflict, essentially a tool of intimidation. This bluster seems primarily aimed at domestic consumption, bolstering public support and deflecting criticism of the war’s performance. It’s a calculated risk, playing on fears to maintain control. However, the underlying reality is far less dramatic.
The threat, in essence, is a bluff. Even setting aside the morality and global ramifications, a nuclear attack would be incredibly self-destructive for Russia. The country is geographically proximate to the conflict zone, meaning any nuclear fallout would severely impact Russia itself. The Russian elite, who benefit enormously from the current regime, are unlikely to risk their own lives and fortunes in a nuclear exchange over Ukrainian territory.
Moreover, the current state of the Russian military casts significant doubt on their capacity for a successful nuclear strike. Their performance in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine exposes significant logistical and technological shortcomings. There’s reason to question whether their nuclear arsenal is even fully functional, further undermining the credibility of their nuclear threats.
Even a limited nuclear strike, such as targeting Kyiv, carries unimaginable risks. While Putin might believe he could manipulate a sympathetic world leader into inaction, this is a wildly optimistic and highly improbable scenario. Such a move would almost certainly trigger a devastating global response far exceeding any perceived gains.
The argument that a desperate Putin might use nuclear weapons in a last-ditch effort to salvage the situation is plausible only under a highly specific set of circumstances – a complete and utter collapse of the Russian military front, and a belief that a nuclear strike would force an immediate ceasefire and negotiations. This outcome, however, remains highly unlikely.
Another factor suggesting that a nuclear strike is a low-probability event is the potential reaction from other global powers, particularly China. A nuclear war would trigger unforeseen global consequences including a potential realignment of alliances against Russia.
Ultimately, the current situation underscores that the risk of a nuclear war remains limited. While Putin’s regime is clearly entrenched in a high-stakes gamble, the costs of a nuclear attack far outweigh any possible benefits. While the threats must be taken seriously and assessed accordingly, many factors strongly suggest that these pronouncements are little more than a desperate attempt to maintain control in a rapidly deteriorating situation. The likelihood of a nuclear exchange remains remarkably low.
The prevailing conclusion among many is that Russia will not launch a nuclear attack. The potential ramifications, including the near-certain destruction of the Russian state and the untold global devastation, are simply too high. The threats, while real in their expression, seem ultimately to be a show of force, a tactic, rather than a genuine intention.