By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence argues that Ukraine could build a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if the US withdraws military support. The report claims Ukraine could utilize plutonium from spent fuel rods to create a weapon similar to the “Fat Man” bomb, albeit with a significantly lower yield. This move would be predicated on Ukraine withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, as the US’s withdrawal of support would violate the Budapest Memorandum. While western experts estimate a longer development timeline, Ukrainian officials believe a ballistic missile capable of delivering such a weapon could be operational within six months, highlighting the dire situation they face and the possibility of a nuclear deterrent becoming a necessity.
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The idea of Ukraine developing a nuclear weapon has been circulating, with some claiming they are “months away” from having a bomb. This has sparked intense discussion about the implications of such a move.
On the surface, it’s easy to understand why Ukraine might consider this drastic step. After all, they surrendered their nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for territorial sovereignty, a promise that Russia has broken. This betrayal has left Ukraine vulnerable, facing an ongoing invasion.
However, the prospect of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons is fraught with complications. Experts highlight the difficulty in building a nuclear weapon from scratch, especially in a compressed timeframe. The expertise required is not easily replicated, and even if skilled scientists were willing to return to Ukraine, their former countries might not easily release them.
Furthermore, even if Ukraine did manage to develop a bomb, it wouldn’t guarantee them victory in the conflict. Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons, and the potential for retaliation is a significant deterrent. Launching a nuclear attack would almost certainly trigger a devastating response from Russia, leading to a much larger conflict with potentially catastrophic consequences.
The idea of a nuclear Ukraine is unsettling, especially for those living in Europe. The threat of escalation and a nuclear winter hangs over the continent, fueled by the potential for a catastrophic nuclear exchange.
While some argue that a nuclear Ukraine could act as a deterrent and force Russia to negotiate, others fear that it could escalate the conflict beyond control. The potential for miscalculation, accidental launch, or even a preemptive strike by Russia adds a layer of complexity and risk that few are comfortable with.
In the midst of this discussion, it’s important to remember that the situation is fluid and the information surrounding Ukraine’s potential nuclear program is often fragmented and speculative. Claims of being “months away” from a bomb need to be treated with caution, as the process is likely much more complex and challenging than some portray.
Regardless of the specifics, the very idea of Ukraine considering nuclear weapons as a response to Russia’s invasion is a testament to the desperation and fear that have permeated the conflict. It’s a stark reminder of the dangers of unchecked aggression and the potential for escalation in an era of nuclear weapons.