By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Joint U.S.-Japan military plans for a Taiwan contingency are nearing completion, aiming to deploy missile units to bolster regional defenses. These plans include stationing U.S. Marine Littoral Regiments, equipped with HIMARS, in Japan’s Nansei Islands. Furthermore, a U.S. unit specializing in space, cyber, and electromagnetic warfare will be deployed to the Philippines. The strategy anticipates a coordinated response involving both nations’ forces in the event of a Taiwan emergency. Details remain unconfirmed pending official statements.
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Japan and the U.S. are reportedly developing a joint missile defense plan to address a potential Taiwan emergency. This plan, however, faces considerable uncertainty, primarily stemming from the potential for significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy depending on who holds the presidency. The sheer scale of the Chinese military, estimated at over two million personnel, presents a formidable challenge, fueling concerns about the feasibility and effectiveness of any preemptive defense strategy.
A key element under consideration is strengthening naval defenses around Taiwan. This approach focuses on disrupting any Chinese attempt to cross the Taiwan Strait, identified as a potential weakness in a large-scale invasion. The vastness of the Pacific Ocean presents a significant obstacle to any direct amphibious assault on the United States, rendering a large-scale invasion extremely difficult to execute successfully.
The possibility of a direct attack on the U.S. mainland using Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) is also being considered. The deployment of even a single ICBM, however, would almost certainly trigger a devastating thermonuclear response, escalating the conflict beyond a regional crisis and potentially resulting in global annihilation. This high-stakes scenario highlights the potential for catastrophic consequences and underscores the immense risk involved in any escalation.
Despite the potential for a change in U.S. foreign policy under a different administration, the likelihood of global support for the U.S. in a defense of Taiwan remains high. The U.S. is widely considered a crucial defender of the free world, and a significant portion of the international community would likely rally to its support, irrespective of the political climate within the U.S. A contrary scenario where a U.S. government, potentially under external influence, might ignore the plight of its allies is considered less likely. The vast military strength and widespread presence of the U.S. military at home makes direct assault a significant undertaking.
The significant challenges posed by a conventional invasion are further highlighted by comparing the difficulties Russia faced in its invasion of Ukraine. Even without a substantial navy, Ukraine presented formidable challenges to a Russian amphibious assault. Given the much greater distances and the formidable nature of U.S. defenses, a direct assault on the U.S. mainland presents an even more insurmountable challenge.
A less conventional approach to destabilizing the U.S., that focuses on exploiting internal divisions and fostering social unrest, is also a considerable factor. The possibility of subterfuge, aiming to undermine national unity and economic stability, poses a much more subtle and potentially more effective threat. This sort of internal conflict, if successful, would be likely to severely hinder the U.S. response to external aggression, potentially to the point of rendering them ineffective.
Concerns also exist regarding the geographic vulnerabilities of U.S. allies in the Pacific region. The proximity of South Korea, Okinawa, and Guam to potential invasion routes raises concerns about the immediate defense capabilities in those areas. The feasibility of any large-scale invasion from Russia via Alaska is similarly considered highly unlikely, given the vast distances, difficult terrain, and the significant military presence in the region. These considerations highlight the complexities of defending such geographically dispersed, and heavily populated areas from multiple simultaneous attacks.
In conclusion, the development of a joint U.S.-Japan missile defense plan for a potential Taiwan emergency is a complex and multifaceted undertaking. While the sheer scale of the Chinese military and potential for catastrophic escalation present significant challenges, the vast distances involved in a direct attack on the U.S. mainland and the anticipated international support for the U.S. in a potential conflict offer some mitigating factors. The possibility of subterfuge, focusing on internal destabilization rather than direct military conflict, however, remains a significant and arguably more realistic threat, highlighting the changing nature of modern warfare.